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ABC Radio Brisbane

Interest rate cuts & population growth A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

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Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the
benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.

Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

But the Reserve Bank Governor, as you’ve heard, says it was a consensus decision by the Reserve Bank to cut the interest rates.
The banks of Australia rapidly followed suit.
It’s the second cut this year.
Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers says it reflects the substantial progress in the fight against inflation.
But as you’ll hear, it also means that there’s going to be further pressure on an already-inflated housing market.
Peta Tilse is Head of Funds Management at NatGen.
I asked her, first of all, today, her reaction to the rate cut decision.
Morning, Steve.
So, as expected, markets had fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
So that brought the cash rate down from 4.1% down to 3.8%.
So what it means for an everyday borrower on, say, a $500,000 loan, that’s about $80 a month of saving.
So it’s not, you know, castles or things like that, but, you know, $80 in your pockets better than the banks.
Now, what was interesting out of yesterday is they’ve turned what’s called dovish,
instead of being hawkish, where they stomp on anything that looks like inflation, which means they increase interest rates.
They’ve turned dovish, which means, okay, we’ll let things kind of fly.
So essentially, we had data at the end of last month’s CPI data or inflation data,
which showed the inflation rate come down to 2.4%.
And the trimmed mean, which is the preferred measure that the RBA uses.
There it is. That’s what you all talk about at the pubs.
That’s the one. That’s the one.
Yep, yep.
So the trimmed mean, which basically looks at the middle chunk of things in the survey,
that’s under 3%. So remember, the reserve bank’s always looking at that sort of 2% to 3% band.
Yep.
And so now we’re just under, just.
Now, interesting things out of the CPI was one of the biggest contributors to it was housing.
And within the housing part of that electricity contributed 16.3%, like had a 16.3% rise, but, you know.
So the price of electricity is going up massively still.
Massively. And especially for Brisbaneites, because if you recall, we previously had the $1,000 Queensland Government rebate.
And so basically that got washed out of last quarter’s data.
Yep.
I mean, I can vouch for that. I mean, my electricity bill is nasty and it’s $1,800 a quarter.
So I’ve got to work at my sons and their air conditioning use.
Good luck.
Yeah. Anyway, the other things though that that’s going well for the economy at the moment is still we’ve got unemployment.
Well, it’s good for us in general because we’re employed.
So 4.1%. But that means there’s not a lot of give if things accelerate.
And growth is still sort of a bit over 2%, which is which is good.
My guest is Peta Tilce, Head of Funds Management at NatGen.
This is ABC Radio Brisbane. Steve Austin is my name.
I want to ask you about housing.
I still think this is the major issue for Australians.
Interestingly, Ray White’s Chief Economist, Narita Konsebi has pointed out that the combination of interest rate cuts, the re-elected federal government’s policies to, you know, have a 5% deposit scheme,
you know, lower mortgage insurance situation and global economic uncertainty creates a what she says is a perfect environment for accelerated price growth across Australia’s property markets.
In other words, this all puts increased pressure on the housing market.
How can it not put forced prices up already massively overinflated even further?
Yes.
So let’s go back to basic economics. What affects price?
It’s your various supply and demand dynamics, right?
So and also there’s kind of like other things like, for instance, with if you if you go to borrow money to buy a house, APRA, which is the is the other potential sort of regulator for banks.
So this is just to make sure banks just don’t go out there and land willingly and get us into a whole heap, get people into a whole heap of trouble.
So they’ve got this thing called a line serviceability buffer, essentially.
So basically, irrespective of what that variable rate looks like, like, you know, say at 6%.
And basically they get the lender to add 3% to that.
So now we’re looking at a lending rate of 9%.
And they and if you can meet the grade for that, you’ll get the loan.
And mind you, after this race, recent cut, the best I could see at the minute was about 5.49%.
But anyway, so we’re still talking about 8.5% to 9%, right?
So that’s a lot of money to prove you can serve us.
So that’s just one thing.
So that’s going to hamper things.
But, you know, as interest rates come lower, that test will mean more people can actually apply to get a loan, etc.
So again, that’s sort of increasing the demand side of things.
Secondly, when we look at property and look, I look at it from a commercial property perspective, because that’s what we do at NAC Gen.
But it’s the same with residential.
It’s about population growth.
And for instance, in Australia, our population is growing about 2%.
In the southeast Queensland corner, we’re 2.3%.
That’s massively high by global standards.
Massively high.
Correct.
And even on the Queensland government’s own kind of trackings, like we’ve got a population of about 3.8 million people in the southeast Queensland corner.
And they’ve got this regional plan that goes out to 2046 and they’re expecting it to get to 6 million people.
So we need to find another 900,000 new homes to house all these people.
And don’t forget, we’ve got net overseas migration.
So that’s a combination of temporary people that are that might be students coming to land English and whatnot versus, you know, the people that are moving here to actually work on mines or wherever they’re going.
So when you’re looking at those kind of demand characteristics, it’s really strong.
Yet, is supply actually keeping up with that?
No, supply is slowing down.
Correct.
And the federal government’s increasing demand.
Correct.
And not tinkering with the things that they can tinker, which is, which literally is, you know, maybe we don’t bring in so many students, for instance, on those visas and sort of let a bit of absorption occur and the economy sort of settle a bit.
But, you know, that’s government policy and they have to figure those things out.
It all comes down to supply and demand and what price we have to pay for things.
And don’t forget, we have got, Brisbane has got an incredible next few years of infrastructure spend coming with obviously with the Olympics, but it’s all the other things like, you know, the Kumara connector, the Kumara hospital, you know, the various upgrades to other hospitals, the Cross River Rail, etc.
Like there’s so much infrastructure being built at the moment that there’s high demand for labour, which means you’re paying more for tradies.
But can you afford to pay them to build you a new house?
Probably not.
You know, so it’s, it’s, we’re coming up to a difficult period in my opinion.
I’ll talk to you again about this.
Peta Tilse, thank you very much for your time.
Pleasure, Steve.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management at Natgen.

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Australian Property Markets

Snowy Mountains Centennial Plaza Sells for $13.725 million

This sale marks JLL’s 5th regional NSW supermarket anchored transaction in the last nine months, and the Retail Investments NSW team facilitating over $117 million in deals.  

Cooma’s Centennial Plaza, a prominent Coles-anchored neighbourhood shopping centre in the Snowy Mountains, has sold for $13.725 million to a Brisbane-based syndicator.  

JLL’s Sebastian Fahey and David Mahood brokered the sale. The deal was concluded post the close of the Expressions of Interest (EOI) campaign and was sold by Adelaide based syndicator FRP Capital and purchased by Brisbane based syndicator Nat Gen.  

Sebastian Fahey, JLL Senior Executive, Retail Investments – NSW commented on the transaction: “The sale of Centennial Plaza confirms the ongoing demand for well-positioned, supermarket-anchored centres in regional locations within NSW. In 2024, neighbourhood centre transactions in Regional NSW increased by 22% based on the previous year, clearly showcasing the demand from investors for regional NSW assets outside of the tightly held Sydney market.” 

Centennial Plaza, located at 116-128 Sharp Street in Cooma, spans 4,395sqm of gross lettable area (GLA), comprising a Coles supermarket, 13 specialty shops and two office tenancies. Its diverse tenant mix and strong anchor covenant proved attractive to investors seeking stable income streams in regional markets. 

David Mahood, JLL Senior Executive, Retail Investments – NSW, added: “Looking ahead, we anticipate this demand to persist, especially for assets that offer a blend of stable income and potential for future growth. The ongoing infrastructure investments in regions like the Snowy Mountains are likely to further enhance the appeal of strategically positioned retail assets in these areas and continue to attract strong investor interest.” 

Steven Goakes, Managing Director of Natgen stated “The acquisition of Centennial Plaza aligns with Natgen’s investment philosophy of targeting defensive, supermarket-anchored assets in growth regional locations. The centre’s strong tenancy profile and strategic positioning within the Snowy Mountains corridor presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. We continue to see value — as do our investor clients — in well-located regional convenience centres that offer income resilience and the potential for sustainable capital growth.” 

Article by Australian Property Markets.News
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7 News Australia

Snowy Mountains Centennial Plaza Sells for $13.725 million

Broadcasted 17 April 2025 by 7 News ACT

 

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Inside Retail

Snowy Mountains shopping centre sells for $13.7 million

Cooma’s Centennial Plaza, a Coles-anchored shopping mall in the Snowy Mountains, has been sold to Brisbane-based syndicator Natgen Group.

The $13.725 million deal was brokered by global commercial real estate and investment management company JLL.

In 2024, neighbourhood centre transactions in Regional NSW increased by 22 per cent based on the previous year, clearly showcasing the demand from investors for regional NSW assets outside of the tightly held Sydney market,” said Sebastian Fahey, JLL senior executive, retail investments NSW.

The plaza, previously owned by Adelaide-based FRP Capital, has 4395sqm of gross lettable area and includes a Coles supermarket, two office tenancies and 13 specialty shops.
“The centre’s strong tenancy profile and strategic positioning within the Snowy Mountains corridor presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity,” said Steven Goakes, MD of Natgen.

Article by Inside Retail
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Commo.

A prominent Coles-anchored neighbourhood shopping centre in the Snowy Mountains, Cooma’s Centennial Plaza sold by JLL’s Sebastian Fahey and David Mahood.

Cooma’s Centennial Plaza, a prominent Coles-anchored neighbourhood shopping centre in the Snowy Mountains, has sold for $13.725 million to a Brisbane-based syndicator.

JLL’s Sebastian Fahey and David Mahood brokered the sale. The deal was concluded post the close of the Expressions of Interest (EOI) campaign and was sold by Adelaide based syndicator FRP Capital and purchased by Brisbane based syndicator Nat Gen.

Sebastian Fahey, JLL Senior Executive, Retail Investments – NSW commented on the transaction: “The sale of Centennial Plaza confirms the ongoing demand for well-positioned, supermarket-anchored centres in regional locations within NSW. In 2024, neighbourhood centre transactions in Regional NSW increased by 22% based on the previous year, clearly showcasing the demand from investors for regional NSW assets outside of the tightly held Sydney market.”

Centennial Plaza, located at 116-128 Sharp Street in Cooma, spans 4,395sqm of gross lettable area (GLA), comprising a Coles supermarket, 13 specialty shops and two office tenancies. Its diverse tenant mix and strong anchor covenant proved attractive to investors seeking stable income streams in regional markets.

David Mahood, JLL Senior Executive, Retail Investments – NSW, added: “Looking ahead, we anticipate this demand to persist, especially for assets that offer a blend of stable income and potential for future growth. The ongoing infrastructure investments in regions like the Snowy Mountains are likely to further enhance the appeal of strategically positioned retail assets in these areas and continue to attract strong investor interest.”

Steven Goakes, Managing Director of Natgen stated “The acquisition of Centennial Plaza aligns with Natgen’s investment philosophy of targeting defensive, supermarket-anchored assets in growth regional locations. The centre’s strong tenancy profile and strategic positioning within the Snowy Mountains corridor presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. We continue to see value — as do our investor clients — in well-located regional convenience centres that offer income resilience and the potential for sustainable capital growth.”

Article by Commo.
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From The Desk Of Steven Goakes

From The Desk Of Steven Goakes A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

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Steven brings a wealth of experience to Natgen and our clients. His 30 year career has focused on commercial real estate, funds management, compliance, corporate governance and law.With a masters degree in property and trust law and a business degree, since 1998 Steven has been structuring and operating manage investment funds to maximise returns to stakeholders. Success in this area has come through critical analysis of organisational and stakeholder needs, and focusing management effort in those areas which add investor value.Steven has managed investment assets in excess of $1 billion and has personally overseen the purchase and investment of a further $1 billion of commercial properties and participated in (and advised on) joint-venture developments totalling over $400 million in gross realisation.Beyond his professional activities, Steven is also actively involved in mentoring business professionals for organisations within Australia & abroad.Steven is a responsible manager under the Group’s AFSL.
Transcript

NatGen in 2025, busy times.
As we pass the quarter post of 2025, the NatGen team is intensely focused and fully occupied.
It is now five years since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
And it is fair to say that this one event has dominated the economic landscape ever since,
perhaps at least until a certain inauguration ceremony
in Washington DC in January this year.
In this five year period,
we have become familiar with almost constant economic change.
Quarter one of 2025 has been no exception.
Whilst this can be challenging at times, the good news is that we at NatGen are accustomed
to constant change within our markets and portfolio.
The outlook suddenly darkens.
With the recent announcement of a broad terrorist regime being implemented by the United States, the general outlook for global economies has been dominated by gloomy  commentary.
Debt markets have responded to this
by factoring in reduced interest rates in the medium term,
consistent with the expectation of reduced global growth.
A comprehensive analysis of the impact of the US tariffs regime is well beyond the scope of this paper.
We can all consume copious analyses over the days and weeks ahead from a broad range of analysts.
My initial reaction, however,
is to feel affirmed that we have stuck to the basics
when it comes to asset allocation
and a concentration on defensive property assets, where the provision of basic goods and services is the focus of our tenants.
I believe that this has shielded us
from some of the price variability
in certain markets over the past five years and is likely to continue to do so in the future.
Of course, anyone invested in the share market currently is familiar with price variability.
The current times provide a salutary contrast between share price variability and the relative stability of property assets
and income production.
We see this as a major benefit
of commercial property  investment.
Debt capital management and interest rate management.
Even prior to the recent tariffs revelations, medium-term market interest rates have been moderating.
As I have mentioned previously to you, NATGEN keeps a constant watch on interest rate projections and market pricing over the terms of our trusts.
This is the basis upon which we formulate a view on the average five-year interest rate over the term of a NATGEN investment trust, as stated in our information memoranda.
As the medium-term rates have modified, we have taken the opportunity to hedge our interest rate positions on a number of trusts, including CO24, QC24,
SP24 and CA25, and also to seek reduced margin arrangements with banks on other trust debt, including GD21, IR22 and GL22.
This activity has produced  meaningful reductions in interest rate costs of virtually all of the trusts mentioned above. The aim of interest rate hedging is to limit the risk posed by interest rate variability on the performance of the trust by fixing the interest cost for a certain term.
In the case of our recent hedging,
we have been focusing on three-year fixed terms, as this provides the best rates along the forward interest rate curve.
Consistent with our current defensive positioning, we will be proposing to maintain current distribution levels and bank any savings for the maintenance
of appropriate capital buffers for the trusts.
Of course, any surplus not distributed now will add to the capital base of the trust when it comes to an end, and trust assets are distributed to unit holders.
The NATGEN response.
Consistent with the NATGEN investment philosophy, we continue to seek assets which provide long-term defensive income and to acquire at prices which reflect solid value in the medium term.
We seek to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the property  market
to target mispriced assets.
Within this context, we continue to set target sectors based on our assessment of value.
The following synopsis of our target areas outlines the value propositions we seek.
Regional convenience retailing.
Well-placed assets within solid regional locations provide steady income consistent with our aims,
but generally at more favorable prices than metropolitan assets.
Historical data indicates that approximately 30% of the nation’s GDP is derived in regional Australia.
This figure underscores the significant economic role of regional Australia, whilst also producing the majority of the nation’s merchandise exports.
Recently, the secret appears to be out, and competition to acquire these assets is increasing.
Examples of NATGEN trusts relying on regional convenience retail include KT-21, GD-21, IR-22, CO-24, and CA-25.
Non-CBD Office.
The CBD office sector was slammed during the pandemic
due to stay-at-home mandates and the like.
Work-from-home protocols emptied city office buildings.
The whole sector has  experienced downward value pressure, leading to value purchasing opportunities.
Concurrently, steep rises in construction costs have made replacement of office stock unviable at current rental levels,
providing existing buildings with a significant competitive rental advantage, especially in tightly held precincts.
NATGEN examples of non-CBD Office assets include GL-22 and QC-24, with another coming soon.
Value-add industrial. Industrial property across the globe has benefited from the stampede to internet shopping during the pandemic and thereafter.
This has focused principally on logistics and fulfillment.
However, much of the traditional industrial stock is focused on manufacturing and its supply chain.
This traditional industrial stock is transitioning to more modern industrial forms, with the attendant uplift in values as the repositioning occurs.
NATGEN remains aware of this trend and vigilant for  opportunities in this market.
We hope to provide you with an example of this type of  investment later in 2025.
Specialist assets.
Specialist assets are identified by their strong income generation attributes and sustainability of these income streams.
Again, we look to certain sectors that offer certainty in times of volatility, such as medical and logistics support.
Tenants in these fields tend to have strong income generation linked to government spend,
essential services, or blue-chip clientele.
And NATGEN example of this is SP24.
NATGEN developments in 2025.
NATGEN is set to deliver five development projects in 2025,
with a total value in excess of $110 million.
In all cases, the developments are being delivered within the initially assessed cost envelopes for each project.
This has been an amazing effort by the NATGEN development team.
The pipeline will continue to grow in 2025, with a NATGEN Development Trust release imminent.
Whilst the sector focus of our development projects will broaden in 2025,
the fundamentals which we seek will remain unchanged.
These include a proven market, good value sales expectations, and strong cost control.
Focusing on the basics.
Beyond acquisition strategy and development delivery,
we at NATGEN remain focused on delivery of the basic fund management and property management services,
upon which our unit holders rely.
Words which we aspire to embrace are care, dependability, innovation, and transparency.
We look forward to providing you with new opportunities in both NATGEN Development Trusts and NATGEN Investment Trusts in the coming weeks.
Thank you for your time, Steven Goakes.

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ABC Radio Brisbane

Tariffs, stock market and the AU dollar A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

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As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the
benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.

Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

ABC Radio Brisbane. 13.5 to 9, believe it or not, there will probably be some benefit for
Queensland as a result of the Trump tariff moves. So how will this affect residents in the state?
Peta Tilse is Head of Funds Management at NatGen. I spoke to Peta Tilse early this morning
and observed that the stock market or the share market has taken a hammering.
Yeah, morning Steve. Look, all of us have superannuation,
accounts, all of those ask that work, etc. And so if you actually had a look at your account today,
it’s probably looking a bit dusty after being battered last week and yesterday. Having said that,
if you do have some cash on the sidelines, I mean, some of these super funds have been sort of taking
money out of shares in recent times because they’ve been overvalued. Well, they’re probably just
redeploying and yeah, so they’re probably just redeploying and putting more capital to work.
The other side of things too is we’ve seen the Australian dollar that absolutely got hammered
yesterday and in fact this morning, it’s still trading under 60 cents US. That’s actually really
good for our exporters. And inbound tourism as well, I understand. Correct. And it’s great
for our exporters. It also makes, it pretty much negates whatever tariff he’s just put on us.
So it’s actually making us more competitive globally. So that’s actually positive.
And then in terms of interest rates, because for those of us that have mortgages,
there’s actually more forecasts of interest rate cuts. Now they’re actually talking that in May,
we might get 50 basis points as a cut. ANZ, which has been probably one of the banks,
the majors that only thought one interest rate cut this year about a week ago. And
NAB on the other side was always expecting three. ANZ is now saying three interest rate cuts this
year. So that will bring our cash rate down to 3.35 cents. So that’s a lot lower than where we are
now at 4.1. So that will help mortgages. And yeah, and so those sorts of things will filter through
to us everyday people. My guest is Peta Tilse. She’s head of funds management at NatGen.
This is 612 ABC Brisbane. So an Aussie dollar around 60 cents US is good for our exports,
which would be good for mining and the agricultural, our farmers. It’ll be great for inbound tourism,
which should look after Queensland somewhat. It’ll slow Australians going overseas and spending
their money overseas are more likely to spend it here. In a sense, it’s sort of an irony, isn’t it?
The Donald Trump’s wild move looks like it’s killed off Peter Dutton’s prime ministerial
ambitions and it’s helped Anthony Albanese, who has been, what’s the word? Less than complimentary.
Doing a Stephen Bradbury. Thank you. So Albo’s doing a Stephen Bradbury. And of course Brent
Crude. The price of Brent Crude went down significantly as well, which will also make our
petrol significantly cheaper once the oil companies pass it through. So and that’s all to do with the
everyone’s sort of worried about what they’re calling now an economic nuclear winter. Like that’s
so dark, right? So that’s that’s sort of how they’re describing what’s what’s going to happen in the
States. But you’ve got to remember, we’re talking about two of the world’s largest economies,
which are the US and China. And if those two slow down in growth in terms of what they’re doing,
that means less demand from everybody else, what we export to those particular countries. And
whilst in the states, they’ve got a trade surplus with us, we import more from the states than we
export to them. In China, it’s not not the case. And, you know, more than a third of our exports
go to China. And so there will be kind of repercussions, I guess, in the sense that demand
will drop off. But that Australian dollar being quite soft is actually in our favour.
Isn’t that ironic? This is 612 ABC Brisbane, my guest is Peta Tilse. Peta, given what’s happened
in the United States, and there’s some rumblings about a possible recession, what does this mean for
property or house prices at all, where people, a lot of people have invested
in different areas of the property market. What do you see?
So there’s still going to be demand, Steve, because we still haven’t solved the housing crisis in
Australia. You know, the beauty of property is it’s all always bricks and mortar. It’s an asset
that will always be there for people. So I don’t think property prices are going to go down anytime
soon. And in fact, when interest rates do come lower, it sort of makes things a bit more affordable.
So it probably supports property valuations. Now, let me play you what Michael Knox, chief
economist at Morgan’s told me a couple of days ago. His argument is that we’re slightly misunderstanding
the Trump tariff. It’s not a protection move. It’s a negotiation or a trading move.
So this is not a conventional tariff war. This is an invitation to bargain and enter a bargain
for lower tariffs. So if, for example, China cut its tariffs in half, the US would cut its tariffs
in half in return. So it is, as I say, amazingly, in the case of Donald Trump, it is the beginning
of a bargaining process. That’s Michael Knox from Morgan’s. So have any countries indicated at all
that they are prepared to start talking or trading their tariffs? Well, the word is, Steve, that
over the weekend about 50 countries turned up on the US doorsteps. So they’re ready to make deals,
I believe, Israel, some of the smaller Asian countries. Vietnam, I believe. Yep. They’re all
over there ready to cut a deal. So in the scheme of things, he’s begun what he probably set out to do.
So now as an unexpected result from this, does this mean that Donald Trump’s wild move
will actually assist lower inflation in Australia? Is that what’s slowly starting to appear?
That this will actually force inflation down? They will put the recession question to one side,
but will actually lower inflation in Australia, Peta Tilse?
I guess it depends on what’s used. So, excuse me, in terms of, you know, if we’re aligned on
imports for certain major projects and things like that, well, you know, that’s going to be more
expensive. But it just, yeah, it just kind of depends. It’s not going to solve our energy
issues internally, which means we can’t really be out there manufacturing to compete for anything here.
But we can still pull out of the ground more iron ore and we can still pull, you know, get
more beef off the land, so to speak. We can do all those things, but it’s not changing our
cost of production internally at this stage because we still have various wage costs and
other factors of production, you know, cost of production.
Peta Tilse, thanks very much for your time once again.
Pleasure, Steve.
Peta Tilse, she’s head of funds management at NatGen.

Interest rate cuts & population growth...

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From The Desk Of Steven Goakes...

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Tariffs, stock market and the AU...

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RBA rates, Policies & Housing Trends...

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ABC Radio Brisbane

RBA rates, Policies & Housing Trends A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,200+ followers

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1,000+ followers

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00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the
benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.

Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

You’re listening to Mornings on ABC Radio Brisbane with Steve Austin.
The Reserve Bank of Australia made its cash rate decision yesterday.
It didn’t budge.
It’s clear.
It’s not straightforward as to whether inflation is actually beaten or not, although it does
look like it’s moderated according to the Reserve Bank, but they’re not confident of
the direction it’s yet to go.
So what does this reveal about the federal government’s policy settings?
Well, let’s go to Peta Tilse.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management at NatGen.
I spoke to her earlier this morning.
Steve, they didn’t even discuss any sort of cuts or anything like that this time round.
They still noted the tight labor market.
They noted that activity is picking up.
They also noted that productivity is flat.
So none of those things would ever suggest a further rate gap, to be honest.
So it kind of brings back into question what happened back in February, I would suggest.
What happened back in February?
Where they dropped it?
Where they dropped it, yeah, which really felt like Michelle Bullock was pressured into
it, because that was kind of the feeling from most in the market.
In the statement I read from Michelle Bullock, it’s quite clear to them that the RBA, it’s
not clear to the RBA which way inflation is going to go.
What does that say about the current Albertese government’s policy settings?
Anything?
Well, just remember there’s two sort of, I mean, it’s not all about the RBA show for
Australia.
I mean, we have monetary policy, which is what they control, which is the supply of money,
which is interest rates.
And then on the flip side, we’ve got fiscal policy, which is what the government controls,
and that’s to do with spending.
And as we saw at the budget with Jim Chalmers, et cetera, they’re continuing to spend and
we’re going to have more debt, and that’s actually very stimulatory to an economy, which
is kind of putting the foot on the accelerator, so to speak.
Then this counterproductive problem, we’ve got one foot on the brake and one foot on
the accelerator.
Correct.
And we’re not really winging about interest rates being too high and trying to argue
for us, but you can’t have it both ways, I guess.
My guess is Peta Tilse, head of funds management at NatGen.
This is 612 ABC Brisbane.
What about then what we’ve heard from the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, he’s announced
that they’ll halve the federal fuel rebate for 12 months if elected.
Would that make any genuine dent in cost of living for people?
I actually think it will.
So if we look at the Albanese policy of cutting the tax ever so slightly to the point where
you get what is it, $5 a week or something like that, that doesn’t kick in until next
year.
So we’ve got 12 months to wait for that one, whereas this one will be instantaneous.
And what I like about it is that it’s not just for taxpayers, it’s for every person
in the economy.
And even if you don’t drive a car, even if you’re the pensioner that hops on the bus
and pays you 50 cent fare and off you go, you’re still going to benefit because when
you think about supply chains, when you think about going to the shops and buying your milk
bread, etc., that all has to get delivered or A produced and then B delivered to a shop.
So that will actually reduce the cost in that sort of part of the import.
And that will happen for everyone within Australia.
Well, that’s federal politics.
Let me ask you about something else that’s in my list’s minds and that’s housing.
So the RBA cash rate is of interest to people because what does it mean if you’re getting
a mortgage or you’re paying a mortgage?
How much is the value of a house risen in Brisbane over the last five years, Prita Tills?
It is insane, Steve.
We had some data out yesterday and I was actually doing a pop quiz around the office to see
who thought which capital city had the highest sort of price rises over the last five years.
So this data is from April 2020 to now, so five years.
And if you think back to April 2020, it was sort of the middle of all the start of the
pandemic.
Okay.
So in terms of Brisbane, house prices have actually risen 70 per cent, seven zero.
So over five the last five years.
Yes, from then to now, that’s the measurement.
And in terms of which has gone up the most, it’s actually Perth, so they’re 76 per cent.
And who did the worst was actually Melbourne, unsurprisingly, 10 per cent.
If you own a house in Melbourne, it’s 10 per cent different from five years ago.
That’s how you interpret that data.
So if it was a million dollars, then it’s a 1,100,000 now sort of thing.
What world am I living in, Peta Tilse, if a cost of a house in Brisbane is greater than
the cost of a house in Melbourne?
What’s happened in the last five years?
Well, and it comes down to how an economy’s run.
This is literally it, right?
This is the crunch point.
And they had Dan Andrews lock everybody up.
They’ve got all sorts of problems, which they’ve just palmed off to Dysentralen.
And here we are with the amount and the debt in Victoria that the federal government or
whoever it is will probably have to help them along the way with some projects.
And so flip over to Queensland where we’ve got a mining sector that’s sort of kept everything
going for us, same with Perth.
And so they’re two of the strongest economies within Australia.
My guest is Peta Tilse.
She’s at NatGen.
She’s head of funds management.
We’re talking about the RBA decision and the cost of housing now.
Is are we in the housing bubble?
If the cost of a house in Brisbane or the value, sorry, of a house in Brisbane has increased
70% over the last five years, how is this not a bubble?
In my mind, bubbles pop.
How is this not a bubble?
Well, if we come back to economics, I’ll be boring.
And we look at supply and we look at demand.
Supply has not kept up with demand.
It’s quite simple.
And then therefore that impacts price.
Demand, don’t forget we, and some of the other data too that was released yesterday
shows the net interstate migration.
So remember, we had all those, as we call them, Mexicans, so to speak, coming over the
border to live in Queensland because it is quite cheap comparatively to other states
to live here.
And so Queensland still is leading the charge with net interstate migration.
So we’ve got, I think the number is, I don’t know, I think it’s like 28,000 people coming
in.
And conversely, we’re not building enough.
And what period of time is that 28,000 figure, Peta, tools?
I think that was the rolling quarter average.
Thank you.
So, yep.
And to be specific, anyway, so these people all need homes.
Then we’ve got also the fact that we’ve got net overseas migration.
Then we’ve also got the fact that people are still having babies and whatnot.
So population growth in Australia is about 115,000 people per quarter.
So if we’ve got that number of people coming into our country, they need to live somewhere.
And if we’re not building 115,000 houses per quarter, we’re just not kind of keeping
up with things.
That’s the supply, but also, sorry, that’s the demand, I apologize.
And conversely, the supply needs to sort of keep up with that.
So until that happens, we’re still in this kind of weird predicament.
Even in the commercial property world, so when we’re talking about shopping centers,
offices, et cetera, and this is sort of the world of nature and what we do, we just literally
settled on a shopping center for our investors on Monday.
And we’ve bought that 40% below the replacement cost.
So there’s a value in incumbent assets, like our assets that are already pre-built and whatnot.
And it means that for someone else to come in and build something that’s going to compete
with it, rents would have to be far higher.
So do rents go up?
Because it’s too expensive to build something here in Brisbane.
And so I had a quick look from a housing perspective.
So to build a house is anywhere from $3,000 to $5,500 a square meter.
And if the average size of a house is 226 square meters, we’re talking $633,000 as a
starting price to build a house.
Good grief.
So, yeah.
And then, like I don’t know about you, but I just got my rates, not my rates, my land
valuation notice.
Yes, I did as well.
Yep.
It’s up 20%.
Mine’s up 20%.
So, you know, it’s just incredible.
It hits you from every which direction, Steve.
Peta Tilse is an economist.
She’s head of funds management at NatGen.
Peta, I said on radio yesterday that in Brisbane you need to be a millionaire to own
an average home.
And a couple of listeners objected saying, well, you don’t need to because the bank will lend you money.
So I did a little exercise.
I went on artificial intelligence.
So I did what everyone else says you should do.
You’d have a mortgage of about $100,000 below the average mortgage, by the way, $510,000
at 4% interest, which is once again below the market rate over 25 years.
And you end up paying over $2,600,000 for an average house.
And I’m just thinking…
Incredible.
How is this not madness?
How is this not madness?
I mean, at some point something’s going to break.
Yeah.
And I think, you know, maybe it’s, maybe it’s a, we’re at a juncture where we give away
that sort of Australian dream of owning your own home.
And maybe it’s your renting your own home, which is the sort of more European model.
So, you know, maybe that’s where we’re getting to.
Peta Tilse, thank you very much for your time.
Cheers, Steve.
Peta Tilse, Head of Funds Management at NatGen.

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media

The Monaro Post

Cooma Centennial Plaza set for official handover

COOMA’s Centennial Plaza will soon be in the hands of Australian property fund manager Natgen, following the completion of a due diligence process on the plaza. Centennial Plaza is one of the region’s largest retail precincts and by the end of March, will be owned by Natgen.

Natgen secured the Coles anchored retail centre in mid-December 2024 and has since undertaken detailed assessments to ensure a thorough understanding of the asset’s condition, operations and future potential. “The Natgen due diligence process involves both external experts and our in-house team to assess everything from building structure and operational aspects to leasing requirements and opportunities,” Natgen managing director, Steven Goakes, said.

As a commercial property fund manager, Natgen identifies, negotiates, and acquires assets like Centennial Plaza through a trust structure, providing investors with an opportunity to own a share of the asset and diversify their portfolios. The trust is managed over a term of approximately five years, offering investors a projected annual income return of around eight per cent from leasing revenue. “This is why due diligence is critical,” Mr Goakes said. “It validates investment assumptions and lays the groundwork for optimising the active management of the asset.”

With the process now complete, Natgen has officially gone to contract with the vendor and will take over management of Centennial Plaza at the end of March. Located on Sharp St, Cooma, Centennial Plaza is home to a full-line Coles supermarket, 15 retail and essential service tenancies including The Reject Shop, Commonwealth Bank, and Bendigo Bank, as well as the only Tesla Superchargers in the region.

With dual street access and substantial parking for 210 cars, the centre serves as both a critical local hub and a key stop for the 2.7 million tourists travelling through the Snowy Mountains annually. Natgen acquired the centre for $13.725 million.

Article by The Monaro Post
Article source

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The Courier Mail

Australia’s healthcare system is under mounting pressure, with chronic underfunding struggling to keep pace with shifting demographics.

While federal and state governments spent $175bn on healthcare (around 70 per cent of total health expenses) last financial year, and both major parties have promised $8.5bn extra for Medicare, demand continues to outstrip supply.

Increasingly, private investment is filling the gap. Driving this shift is our ageing population. The over- 65 cohort makes up 17 per cent of the population but accounts for 40 per cent of public hospital care and nearly 50 per cent of hospital bed occupancy.

By 2063, the over-55s group could nearly double, from 7.7 million to 15.2 million people. As chronic conditions like cancer become more prevalent, demand for specialised healthcare services is intensifying.

South East Queensland – particularly the Gold Coast – is a prime location for healthcare property investment, due to its strong population growth and ageing demographics. The city exemplifies the challenges of rapid population growth and the need for innovative healthcare solutions.

However, government investment has struggled to keep pace, leading to capacity constraints in public healthcare.

This has driven the rise of alternative healthcare models, such as specialist day hospitals, which alleviate pressure on major hospitals while ensuring critical treatment access.

Natgen’s Investment Trust SP24, is an example. Its key asset, Icon Cancer Centre provides high-quality cancer treatment in a dedicated setting, improving patient outcomes and freeing up resources in overstretched public hospitals. This shows how private capital can deliver real solutions to meet growing healthcare needs.

With government budgets stretched thin, public-private partnerships and private capital investment are becoming essential to delivering healthcare infrastructure. Medical property assets such as specialist medical centres, private hospitals and diagnostic facilities are attracting strong interest from investors due to their stable, long-term income streams and resilience. Healthcare is an area where ethical investment aligns with strong financial fundamentals. Private capital is ready to support essential healthcare infrastructure, while delivering sustainable returns to investors.

Steven Goakes is the managing director of Natgen.

Article by The Courier Mail
Written by Steven Goakes
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