fbpx
Categories
media

ABC Radio Brisbane

Interest rates and inflation rates data A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,000+ followers

Linkedin

850+ followers

album-art
00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

ABC Brisbane. Well, as you know, that heard yesterday, the Reserve Bank used its final
meeting of the year to keep interest rates on hold. The official cash rate remains unchanged
at 4.35%. That means if you’ve got a hefty mortgage that you’re struggling with, no
immediate relief. Think February, May next year sometime, maybe. It’s been 13 months
now since there was no change at all in the settings of the Reserve Bank. So what does
this mean for you and me? Well, Peta Tilse is head of funds management at Natgen. Peta,
given what the RBA didn’t do yesterday, what does that mean for you and me?
Steve, just pointing out first up that what we got out of the RBA is dovish comments,
both in the minutes and the press meeting. And what that means is they’re being a bit
softer, I guess, in terms of how they feel about inflation. So being like a peaceful
little dove. That means also that they’re contemplating interest rate cuts. Now, coming
out of that meeting, market pricing is now showing a 70% probability of a February rate
cut and two rate cuts priced in by the May meeting. ANZ and NAB, I think, are both on
the page that it’s going to happen in May, but it doesn’t mean that people in the money
markets think otherwise. So that’s what’s happening. And now we’re talking about terminal
interest rates finishing up at around about 3.35%. So that’s a whole percent different
to where we are today at 4.35%. So if someone’s got a hefty mortgage sometime
between February and May next year, they can expect a little bit of relief, maybe.
Correct. All right. What is the cost of living at the moment? Inflation. We had GDP data
out the other day and cash rate today where the RBA is looking at inflation. So what does
that mean for what you and I are paying when we buy for a coffee or groceries or something?
So just to recap, inflation last week was 0.8%. That’s actually pretty anemic. While
it’s positive, it’s anemic. It’s the weakest number that we’ve had since the 90s. So excluding
COVID, that is, of course. Business investments are subdued and household spending has dropped
and they’ve increased savings. And what that means is people are banking any of those tax
cuts that they’ve got since July 1. And they’re banking any sort of savings they can when
it comes to energy prices. In terms of good bringing up coffee, first thing in the morning,
Steve, I was actually pondering this the other day as I paid $5 from my coffee, which I really
appreciate from Grace and Dwayne below our building. If you think about what goes into
producing coffee, you need energy, you need wages, and there’s obviously coffee beans
and milk and so forth. Energy prices for businesses sky-high, as we know. They did get a bit of
a rebate, but it’s not a long-term fix. Wages are higher than they were a couple of years ago.
So if I think about my $5 coffee a year ago was $4 and probably two years ago was about $3.50.
So that’s increased 42% from about two or three years ago.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management at Natgen.

Interest rates and inflation rates data...

Listen Now

The Trump effect on the markets...

Listen Now

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation...

Listen Now

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates...

Listen Now
Our recent coverage

Register your interest to receive priority information

Our investor relations team will contact you with information on our latest investment trusts.

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Categories
media

ABC Radio Brisbane

The Trump effect on the markets A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,000+ followers

Linkedin

850+ followers

album-art
00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

Well, the pundits don’t like him.
The journalists apparently are terrified by him.
The commentators, depending on where you stand,
think he’s controversial or dangerous.
Donald Trump’s win sent stock market sky high.
The market loves him.
Will this trend continue,
or is it a case of what goes up must come down?
Let’s speak with Peta Tilse.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management at NatGen.
I spoke to Peta earlier this morning
and asked what the market reaction was
to the election of Mr. Trump.
Definitely, Steve.
It’s been a big sort of 24, 48 hours
since the election result, and Wall Street liked it.
So we saw stocks rally.
We saw the S&P 500 up about 2.4%
of sort of the day after the election,
and small caps specifically up 5.6%.
So that’s pretty big moves.
And then you’ve got things like Tesla
with Elon Musk being his number one fan, I guess.
So even just overnight, Tesla was up 3.6%,
but the last sort of five days, it’s up about 18.7%.
So huge moves.
I heard somewhere, forgive me,
I can’t quote the actual source,
but it was the biggest sort of post-election lift
in just so many years.
Apparently it was such a hugely positive response,
which is intriguing to me, Peta.
Tell me about Warren Buffett.
I hear that he sold a whole lot of stock
and may have been bruised.
I assume he was expecting a Trump loss.
So tell me the story.
Yeah, well, Warren Buffett, as we know,
considered one of the world’s best investors,
Berkshire Hathaway,
a huge global investor in a lot of brands that we know.
So Warren Buffett’s company has been a massive cash pile.
So they’ve been selling down Apple shares
and all sorts of things.
And they’ve amassed $325 billion worth of cash.
So he’s sitting on that.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s rallied 18% in the last five days.
So I don’t think he would have ever invest in Tesla,
but yeah, so it’s been a tricky market.
I’m sure Warren’s looking at a longer game here,
but yeah, there’s definitely some big moves.
And the US Federal Reserve has reportedly
or apparently made some sort of cut or adjustment
to their rates, to their cash rate.
What have they done?
Yeah, so this morning,
not the RBI, the Federal Reserve, I should say,
just came out and cut by 25 basis points.
It was kind of expected,
but I’m pretty sure Mr. Trump will try and claim that
as a victory on him.
And essentially, look,
they’ve sort of been winning the war on inflation
for the time being,
and their unemployment rate is similar to ours
at around about that sort of 4.1% level.
So the US economy is reasonably healthy,
and they can do these moves,
but it’ll be very interesting to see how that changes
over the course of the next sort of 12 months
once Trump gets inaugurated
in, I think it’s in January,
because a lot of his policies are very pro-America.
You think of in terms of him wanting to build walls
and do those kinds of things,
but there’s also gonna be lots of tax cuts,
corporate tax cuts,
which is part of the reason why Wall Street went bonkers,
and there’s also gonna be tariffs,
which is also supported for US-based businesses.
I mean, some of the tariffs that he’s been mooting
are like 60 to 200% on Chinese goods,
25% on Mexican goods,
and 10% on the rest of the world.
So if you’re an American company,
rely on cheap Chinese steel,
and it’s now gonna be 200% more expensive,
that’s gonna feed into inflation to the US consumers.
So it’s gonna be a very interesting period of time
that we’ll be going into.
Some other points tonight too is Europe
is probably just sitting and watching all of this
because they export a lot to the US,
and they’ve got their own sort of economic concerns
with a very slowing economy there.
So if they can’t export what they need to export,
then it’s gonna sort of mess up
their sort of economic picture even more in Europe.
So I think, yeah, we’re all in for a bit of a new paradigm.
And Fed has cut rates,
but will they continue as probably the next question?
I always think it’s fascinating
when this bloke gets elected,
it always upsets the establishment,
Apple cart, which is what I suspect
many of his supporters actually like anyhow.
So it’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out.
Peta Tilse, thank you very much for your time.
Once again, Peta.
Pleasure, Steve.

Interest rates and inflation rates data...

Listen Now

The Trump effect on the markets...

Listen Now

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation...

Listen Now

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates...

Listen Now
Our recent coverage

Register your interest to receive priority information

Our investor relations team will contact you with information on our latest investment trusts.

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Categories
media

ABC Radio Brisbane

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,000+ followers

Linkedin

850+ followers

album-art
00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

The latest inflation figures are out and the inflation rate is down. Or is it? It turns out the
lower inflation rate is actually due to what some would call gaming the system or gaming the way we
measure it. The big number everyone’s talking about, that 2.8%, isn’t the figure that the reserve
bankers looking at. They’re looking at what’s called the trimmed mean. Now I know that doesn’t get
you excited. So let me explain. Peta Tilse is Head of Funds Management at NatGen. Peta, what was
the inflation figure, first of all, that was released yesterday? So there were two numbers that
get released. There’s the headline number, so 2.8% for the September quarter, which is a fabulous
number because it’s literally within that 2 to 3% band the reserve bank looks at. Having said that,
there’s a thing called the trimmed mean and that is sTilse at 3.5%. And it was down from the last
quarter, which was 4%. So it is down, but it’s sTilse 3.5%. Now I’m fascinated by this. Let me
explain why. So the figure that everyone’s going, hooray 2.8. But as I understand it, that was
artificially brought down because of all of that stimulus or that what was called the cost of living
spending by the Commonwealth and the Queensland State Government. Explain that to me, Peta.
Spot on. Okay. So basically inflation measures the rate of change of a price of something. Yep.
And it takes a whole basket of goods that you and I spend our money on all day every day.
And one of those things is energy prices. So electricity to the house or whatever your business.
Anyway, so that particular item has actually dropped 17% in the September quarter.
How? How has that magic occurred? I wonder, Steve. Could it be a $1,000 rebate that we all
received? Could it be the federal government’s sort of stimulus payment? So those kinds of numbers,
well, sort of fudged, I guess, if you want to call it something. Yes. But, you know,
so that’s just just one element. And that feeds into the goods inflation numbers. So that helps
goods inflation look cheaper, like half. It’s literally half the year. Yes. So that’s that’s
electricity. That includes transport. So petrol prices are actually a bit cheaper. But something,
some other things that are a bit sticky, so to speak, egg prices are up 9%.
Yes. So fruit and veg and all that sort of stuff is actually sTilse higher. It’s up about 3%. And the
other thing that’s sticky too is services inflation. So the stuff that we we also keep paying for all
day every day is rent, insurances, education, medical stuff. That’s all up. And that’s actually up
four and a half percent over the last 12 months. So you just can’t escape it. It’s there. Yeah,
inflation isn’t going to magically disappear like Mr. Chalmers would like, unfortunately.
Yeah, it’s a bit of work. And the thing is the Reserve Bank looks at this thing called the
trimmed mean. So which is not a phrase that I talk about when I’m with friends at the parborre
era, the kids in table, you know, say, hey, look at that trimmed mean figure. Isn’t that interesting?
So give me a quick dummy’s guide education, Peta Tilse’s. Okay. So headline CPR is 2.8%.
The trimmed mean is sTilse 3.5%. What it means is it just looks at 70% of the stuff in the middle.
If you can imagine like a row of what’s the highest inflation to the lowest inflation.
And they cut off the two end bits and they look at the stuff in the middle.
It’s the stuff in the middle is what they’re measuring. And so what they’re trying to do is
literally exclude the electricity price, that huge move in electricity prices.
That is actually excluded. So. Okay, which is why the thing is higher.
Yes, correct. And so that’s why the Reserve Bank is like, well, we’re not looking on the corners
here. We’re looking straight down the middle and we’re not moving. Now, I know you’re an
economist, but so let me ask you about politics. What this reveals is that the stimulus or the
cost of living relief, as it was called, that’s a political phrase from the previous Premier
Stephen Miles and the current federal government in Canberra through say Jim Chalmers. In a sense,
that works. It does bring down or looks like it’s bringing down inflation, but it’s technically
it has. But it’s artificial and it’s temporary. And so it actually covers up what’s really going
on in the real economy. Am I being reasonable? Yep, absolutely. And I think I heard the
Treasurer speaking last night and saying, oh, and wages are up and da da da da. Yeah, wages are up.
So that’s another thing that feeds into inflation because people have to pay for those price
increases in jobs. So as you know, it sort of it all goes in a circle. And that’s probably the
whole point of inflation, unfortunately. So the RBA is going to look at this and they’re going to
say, hang on, the trimmed mean is at 3.5%. That’s way out of our range yet. We’re not going to bring
the cash rate down yet. Correct. And I think Commonwealth Bank removed their prediction for
a rate cut before Christmas. And most of them are sort of all looking at sort of February,
March, maybe even May for the next rate cut. So it’s just getting pushed, kicked down the road
at this stage. I look forward to the kitchen tables and the pubs of Australia say, hey,
look at that trimmed mean figure. Peta Tilse, thanks very much for your time. Thanks, Steve.

Interest rates and inflation rates data...

Listen Now

The Trump effect on the markets...

Listen Now

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation...

Listen Now

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates...

Listen Now
Our recent coverage

Register your interest to receive priority information

Our investor relations team will contact you with information on our latest investment trusts.

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Categories
media

ABC Radio Brisbane

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,000+ followers

Linkedin

850+ followers

album-art
00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

612 ABC Radio Brisbane, the combination of fading globalisation, aging populations,
populist politics and huge budget deficits and surging energy demand means inflationary
pressures will remain higher for longer, according to many commentators. Are the markets ready
for this? What about you and me? In Australia, the Reserve Bank is saying no downward movement
on the cash rate this year. So let’s look at where we are at the moment with Peta Tils.
Peta Tils is head of funds management at NatGen. Good to see you again, Peta.
Hey, Steve.
Who is NatGen? You want to tell me? I’d like to give my guests an explanation in their own words.
Sure.
Who they are, who they represent.
We literally help people invest in commercial property. So people get really good investment
returns, owning shopping centres, warehouses, buildings.
Productive property.
Yeah, productive property. We handle all the work and give them income.
All right. Well, thanks for coming. Let’s look at the finance. So what does the US Federal
Reserve cut of, what, 50 basis points double what most of the markets are expecting? What does
that mean, Peta Tils?
So Steve, yeah, well, for us, okay, so just remember both economies are different,
structurally different. We’ve got in Australia with our homelines and things like that,
around about 75% of our homelines are on a variable rate. Over in the states, they borrow
for 30 years and fixed rates. So when they raise interest rates over there, it doesn’t
have the same effect. It’s more on the short term side of things like car loans and things like that.
Whereas here, if they hike rates here, we all feel it because we’re all on variable rates,
well, mostly. Mostly, yeah.
So yeah, so over there, economies kind of beavering along. They’ve got about a 2% growth rate over
here. We’re on about 1%, so we’re a bit more anemic and that’s because of that factor. And
plus we’ve got, everyone’s got high costs because of inflation, but they seem to have their inflation
a bit better tamed than we do. So…
Yeah, Jay Powell said things aren’t going to sort of have a downturn. So why the emergency,
what looks like an emergency rate cut of 50 basis points instead of the normal point in time?
I wouldn’t characterize it as emergency. It is actually priced in that they were going to do
1% by year end. So that was kind of factored in. So whether it was just a series of 25s or
it was a 25 or a 50, well, he did a 50. So he did it.
He can. Okay.
There’s probably another 50 coming by end of year, which is what’s factored in there.
So yeah, it’s not too bad, but it will depend too on who wins this election for them because if
Trump wins, he’s talking about cutting all the taxes and doing all that sort of stuff. So remember,
when we talk about an economy, there’s monetary policy, which is all this interest rate stuff.
And on the other side of the coin, there’s what government does.
Fiscal policy.
Fiscal policy, correct. So if they’re cutting in, sorry, cutting tax rates, that is super
stimulatory and that’s injecting sort of money back into the economy.
How will they pay down their debt? They’re a trillion dollars on debt interest payments already.
Never will.
Frikey.
So yeah, it’s look, everyone’s living for the minute, I guess.
Which is not terribly prudent.
No.
So our reserve bank says no movement in our cash rate till next year. Do you believe them?
I do. I think that’s kind of a fair assessment.
Something that was, yeah, so I’ve sort of spoken about that 1% growth rate in Australia.
We still don’t have our inflation tamed. Like in the States, they’re under 3%.
They’re about 2.5%, 2.7%, I think is their rate. Whereas we’re about a percent higher with inflation.
So we’re still not in our 2% to 3% band.
Anyway, so I, she’s focused on that. That’s fair enough because, you know, if, if inflation keeps
spiraling, it just makes everything more expensive continuously and then people need more wage rise.
And inflation is still very sticky here, isn’t it?
Correct. Because it’s embedded in things like wages and which,
which don’t move. You know, you can’t just adjust that unless you lose your job.
Yes.
But interestingly, Deutsche Bank pulled out a report this week and they called it labor hoarding.
So that’s a new term I hadn’t heard of that one.
I’ve not heard that one, no.
So essentially what it is, so instead of sacking people because you don’t need them,
it’s literally less hours worked. So instead of working a full week, maybe they’ve got you working
one or two days a week or something like that. So that’s labor hoarding.
So people are still employed, but just on less hours.
On less hours.
And it means you’ve still got access to the skill set if needed when business, when the upturn comes.
If you need to ramp it up.
And it means you’re competitive and get them.
Correct. And we, we had inflate, sorry, we had unemployment,
I’m sorry, employment data out yesterday. It still stayed the same, right?
So we didn’t get a bump higher or anything like that. So,
you know, 4.2% unemployment rate. Remember, we got as low as three and a half.
Yes.
Last year. So 4.2 is still pretty much considered full employment, which is a good thing.
What was interesting is under employment rates. So from 6.3% to 6.5%.
So people are getting more hours.
Less hours.
Sorry, less hours.
Less hours. They want to work more.
Yes.
So this kind of feeds into this labor hoarding theory.
And then the other thing to have a look at is some of the forward-looking indicators that
weren’t necessarily in those numbers, but like job ads that they look at, employment intentions,
there’s different surveys that come out. They’re all forward-looking things
and they’re weakening. So the labor market is cooling in Australia, but not quite yet.
And then conversely for us, we’ve got, I think there’s over half a million
net new migrants coming into Australia. So that’s coming in every year.
Yes.
That’s a lot of people. So for us to maintain this unemployment rate,
we need to be creating about 40,000 new jobs each month, which is kind of happening.
But this last, what was provided yesterday in the numbers,
it was actually part-time employment that was the bulk of the numbers.
Okay. My guess is Peta Tilse. Peta Tilse is Head of Funds Management at NatGen.
It’s five to 10 news in five minutes time. This is 612 ABC Brisbane.
So businesses are hedging or looking at hedging. How are they doing it?
So even though our cash rate is 4.35%, like that’s the official cash rate,
when you look at the term rates, so if you want to lock in a rate for three years,
the interbank rate is around about 3.5%. So what that’s saying is the markets are
expecting interest rates to come down. So it is coming, but just not right now.
So but having said that, does it get any better than that? Well,
because businesses are looking at these things over the next three years, possibly not. So
I mean, I know for us, like we look at what we call the capital stacks. So we have investors
investing in these properties, but we also borrow money and we look at that kind of combination
together to then buy the property, for instance. But we are looking at hedging certain things
hedging certain things because it is attractive at the moment. Now for mum and dads out there
with their home lines, it’s not dissimilar. So if you actually have a look at some of those
variable rates at the moment, I don’t know, there is sort of like the mid sixes still,
or maybe even higher. Have a look at like your two or three year or four year rates,
they’re there in the fives. And it’s possible that could come lower. It just depends on what
margin your respective bank or financier wax on top, so to speak. So you think people should
be looking at two to three year fixed mortgages? If it suits their situation, have a look. Yeah.
One of my listeners, Brian asked, why can’t Australia be like the United States and have
fixed mortgage rates, interest rates for 30 years? What changed and why us, Brian? Any ideas?
I would love that because I literally went when those those rates were at 2%. I begged my bank,
can I lock it in any longer than five years? So technically, I’m still on a 2% rate, which is
great. But you know, I would have lapped that up like no tomorrow. That sort of market in Australia,
unfortunately, isn’t as deep. We talk more about the 10 year Gavi bonds in our market. And really,
it’s up to the banks. No one really wants to hedge for 30 years. And it’s too complicated for them,
I think. Too far out for them. I think so. I spoke with Lee Fanonsen earlier this morning
from macrobusiness.com, he’s a former Commonwealth Treasury official. He said despite immigration,
the high levels of immigration, Australia’s economy isn’t going that well. I just want to
play you briefly what he said just to get a gut reaction. And the fact of the matter is,
Australia has been going backwards for six consecutive quarters in per capita terms,
which is the longest continuous decline in per capita GDP in the nation’s modern history.
Any thoughts? Yeah, I mean, they call it the capita recession. So a recession is defined
by two negative quarters of growth. And as I said just before, we’ve got GDP running at 1%.
It’s not a lot. It’s pretty anemic. It’s nothing. But you also consider those 500,000 people coming
into the country every year at the moment. And you look at that as a growth rate, that’s, I think
2% to 3% somewhere there. So per capita, we’re actually going backwards. So that is correct.
Peta, thanks for coming in once again. Pleasure, Steve.
Peta Tilse, is head of funds management at NatGen.

Interest rates and inflation rates data...

Listen Now

The Trump effect on the markets...

Listen Now

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation...

Listen Now

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates...

Listen Now
Our recent coverage

Register your interest to receive priority information

Our investor relations team will contact you with information on our latest investment trusts.

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Categories
media

ABC Radio Brisbane

Overseas Interest Rates & Employment Data A helping hand in commercial and property investment and development

Natgen exists to provide our clients with well-considered, risk-managed investment opportunities and quality strategic advice. We base our decision-making, advice and investment offers on careful measurement and analysis, and combine this with our management experience to arrive at quality solutions.

Facebook

1,000+ followers

Linkedin

650+ followers

album-art
00:00
As heard on
Finance contributor

Peta brings over 25 years’ financial service experience gained in funds management, and wealth management. As a top performing fund manager, Peta managed institutional cash and fixed income portfolios (in excess of $5b) for Suncorp Investments, and as an Executive Leader, led ASX listed Cromwell Property Group’s Retail Funds Management business. At Natgen, Peta provides our funds management business with further depth and leads the development of new Natgen investments for the benefit of our Unitholders.

Steve has had a varied career at the ABC from researcher for 7.30 Report to producing Stateline, as well as ABC Radio news and presenting the Queensland Statewide Evenings radio program.Steve’s love of Brisbane and passion for fighting the good fight ensures lively and informative conversation every morning on ABC Brisbane.

Episode Transcript

ABC Radio Brisbane.
You’re listening to Steve Austin.
So inflation has come down a bit, not earth-shattering, but a little bit.
What does it mean here in Brisbane, the household, the mortgage, the food?
Peta Tilse is head of funds management at NatGen.
I should also mention that Peta is the mother of three boys
who consume more food than a football team, apparently.
Peta, thanks for coming in.
Spot on, Steve.
So what’s happening in households when inflation has come down a bit,
but it’s still hanging around, Peta Tilse?
What’s going on here?
I mean, I can talk anecdotally, Steve, but we’ve actually got data to prove it, right?
So, I mean, even yesterday, we’ve had the Commonwealth Bank saying that
it’s actually mum and dad’s young families that are feeling the pinch at the moment.
So that’s in their data.
We’ve also had Coles and Woolworth’s report this week.
So we all need to spend money on fruit and veg and meat and everything.
You can’t avoid it. You have to eat.
Can’t avoid it.
So between them, they’ve made about a $3 billion profit,
which isn’t huge in the scheme of things.
It’s probably like, I don’t know.
To me, it sounds a lot, but for a giant company like that all over Australia,
it’s not that much.
But what Coles, Coles’ CEO actually came out and she was talking about
the various trends that they see.
So don’t forget these guys not only can look at the sales data,
they’ve got that flybys and all that sort of stuff,
that deep data that they can look at.
And there’s things like No Meat Mondays.
There’s high sales of the own brand products, so the cheaper options.
People are buying the cheaper cuts of meat.
So maybe having sausages instead of chicken or instead of red meat
and only buying things on sale.
And to be honest, I can vouch.
That’s what I do.
You only buy on sale now.
Things are so tight.
Well, it’s not tight.
So you focus on it?
Yeah, it’s more that if you can buy yogurt for school lunches
when they’re 50% off or 30% off, why wouldn’t you?
So I give the kids the phone to get their favourite flavours, etc.
And I say, right, you can only buy the stuff that’s on sale.
And then because you just wait another week and there will be a sale.
So, you know, there’s a little bit of…
In this inflation data, fresh fruit and vegetables,
the prices are still going up.
Correct.
So the inflation data was interesting.
I mean, this is a pulse.
This isn’t the official CPI per se,
but it is showing that it’s moderating.
The electricity rebates that we’ve seen within the state,
like Queensland and WA, apparently,
the two states that sort of got captured in this data.
If you actually excluded the electricity price rises…
Sorry, the rebates, I should say.
Electricity prices actually went up 0.9%.
So, yeah.
If not for those rebates,
electricity prices are still going up.
Correct.
And around the country, there’s federal rebates,
and that’ll be coming through in September…
Sorry, in the August numbers,
which will be reported this coming month.
In Queensland, we had car registrations.
We’ve got 20% discounts.
We’ve got the 50 cent fares,
and WA’s got something similar going on.
The federal rent assistance is not actually
in this particular data point,
so it’ll come this next month.
And we’re seeing disinflation,
so things are cheaper for clothing, footwear,
and some other household items like couches and things like that.
So things you can delay buying or delay purchasing?
Not necessary stuff.
Not necessary stuff, but stuff you have to buy.
But fruit and veg.
It’s going up, up, up.
Petrol, food, fresh fruit and vegetables.
Rent.
Rent.
Phenomenally.
You raised your eyebrows.
Rent is a really troubling one, by the way.
Well, it is for everybody, right?
Like, you’ve got to live somewhere,
so…
And if you’re a owner-occupier
and you’ve got a mortgage,
well, you know, you’re clearly filling the pinch there,
and if you’re renting and you’re an investor renting,
sorry, with an investment property,
you have to pass on the borrowing costs.
So that’s where the interest rate thing kind of kicks in.
How would you describe those electricity rebates?
Are they a Band-Aid or are they something substantive?
I would definitely call it a Band-Aid.
I mean, it’s helping right now,
but we’ll, like, get us through this.
I mean, we’re probably staring down the barrel
of higher unemployment coming as things slow down.
Investment spending…
There’s been other data points out, retail spending’s coming off.
So let me jump on that.
Every time I buy a coffee for somebody,
I ask them how’s business,
and they go ashen-faced, particularly in hospitality.
But retail looks like it’s really in serious difficulty.
How would you describe it, Peta?
That’s my… You know, what would a journalist know?
How would you describe it?
Well, look, I mean, there’s a lot of cost pressures.
I mean, they’ve still got electricity costs, too,
just like a household.
And they’re going up.
And it’s going up.
And things need to be transported to them and so forth.
So it all kind of builds.
And the way around it is to have better productivity.
I mean, if you’re running that coffee shop,
and you’ve got a 15-year-old working for you
and you want to open on a Sunday,
I actually didn’t know this until my kids were actually working at Mackers.
But there’s a deal done with unions and McDonald’s,
and this happens with a lot of the big businesses,
where instead of paying two times the going rate,
so $8.80 an hour or whatever it is that they would be getting…
On weekends or something.
So instead of getting sort of almost $17-ish, whatever that would be,
they’re getting $12 an hour.
So there’s…
So McDonald’s, with a union, did a special deal to pay the young kids lower rates.
So McDonald’s had… Different loading.
Different loading.
So McDonald’s have a competitive advantage on weekends
when it compared to other hospitality or cafes and food shops or food stores.
And so it means that that little 15-year-old catching the bus in OK Shul
it’s $0.50 at the moment.
But what if it was a $5 fare from wherever they’re going to,
if they’re coming into the city or something like that?
There goes half your pay.
And then there’s rules around how long you can work,
so four hours at a time and things like that.
So, yeah, it’s all…
There’s things that we need to improve with productivity
and, yeah, just sort of the other sort of inputs into what we’re producing.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management for NatGen.
She’s also a mother of three boys.
This is 612 ABC Brisbane.
You travel around parts of Queensland for your company.
What do you see economically?
What do you see because you travel outside of the southeast city built-up area?
Sure.
So this week we were out at Toowoomba and then sort of out at Dolby.
A hell of a lot of activity, which is great for the local economies.
But we dropped into one of our…
We’ve got IGA shops as part of the investment portfolio,
but dropped in to have a look at it and see what the activity was like.
I was walking around the meat aisle and you’re going to laugh at this,
but I see I fill it at $19.99 a kilo and I think, oh my God, that is cheap.
So I’m with my boss and here I am walking around with the two kilo thing.
I fill it because I’m like, I’m going to feed my children this.
And then I was with another colleague and she went, yeah, that is cheap.
And the reason it’s cheap, Steve, is when you go to Coles or Woolies,
it’s like $70 a kilo.
So that’s the difference.
And why is it so different?
Is it just because it’s a regional area or is it because it’s an IGA
compared to a Coles or Woolies?
It could be either or it could be both.
But people in the land are actually complaining about cattle prices.
So someone’s making money there.
I have to go to news in a moment.
What does this say about the federal government’s moves to tackle inflation
or the RBA’s moves to tackle inflation?
Well, they have to do what they have to do,
but they also talk in the papers at the moment that maybe they shouldn’t
be looking at inflation.
They should be looking at broader base things.
But their mandate is to have a stable economy.
They have a federally set mandate.
They’ve got to get it down.
And it impacts all of us if they don’t rein it in.
And is the federal government helping get it down or hindering?
They’re spending a lot.
That’s hindering.
That’s adding to it.
Peta Tilse, thanks for coming in.
Peta Tilse is head of funds management for NatGen.

Interest rates and inflation rates data...

Listen Now

The Trump effect on the markets...

Listen Now

Explaining the latest inflation figure calculation...

Listen Now

Inflationary Pressures & RBA Interest Rates...

Listen Now
Our recent coverage

Register your interest to receive priority information

Our investor relations team will contact you with information on our latest investment trusts.

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Learn more about the potential of investing with Natgen

  • By clicking submit, I consent to receive marketing information from Natgen.
    (You can unsubscribe at any time).

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.






  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.






  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.








  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.






  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.






  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.




  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.








  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


  • Download briefing paper
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.