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2024 in Review

At this time of year, we reflect upon the past 12 months and consider what the future holds. I would like to share my thoughts with you at this time.
2024 in Review - The Economy

The dominant theme in the Australian economy in 2024 has been cost of living pressures catalysed by the precipitous interest rate increases during 2023.

Perhaps the other dominant theme has been the imminent expectation of interest rates reducing very soon after the top rate was reached. This expectation, perhaps based on early commentary of easing from foreign central banks, failed to take into account that foreign rates peaked substantially higher than Australian rates.

In any event, for much of the year it has been clear that interest rate relief would be slower and shallower than initially predicted. It is this eventuality that Natgen has been planning for in the operation of all Natgen Investment Trusts.

Natgen Investment Trust activities for 2024

After not acquiring a single asset for a Natgen Investment Trust during 2023 (due to interest rate uncertainty), we finally found value returning to the market in 2024.

We commenced the year following our acquisitions theme of ‘Region Convenience Retailing’ with the purchase of a Woolworths – anchored shopping centre in Collie, WA.

Our second acquisition embodied our ‘non-CBD office’ theme, with a trust combining office assets in Cairns and the Gold Coast. These purchases were made at well below replacement value, given the precipitous rise in construction costs experienced in the post-Covid recovery period.

During a short hiatus in the middle of the year, we busied ourselves researching a new area of focus for us – specialist assets, including medical.

This research and understanding came to fruition with the purchase of the Icon Cancer Clinic for Natgen Investment Trust SP24. (We will continue to follow this theme into 2025 and beyond, where value can be isolated.)

Natgen Investment Trust SP24

Location:  Southport, Gold Coast, QLD

Investment Status:  FULLY SUBSCRIBED

Purchase Date:  September 2024

Purchase Price:  $9.65M

Return:  8% per annum (Paid Monthly)

Fund Term:  5-6 Years

Tenant:  Specialty Medical

Natgen Investment Trust QC24

Location:  116 Siganto Drive Helensvale, QLD & 76 Lake Street, Cairns QLD

Investment Status:  FULLY SUBSCRIBED

Purchase Date:  May 2024

Purchase Price:  $14.25M

Return:  9.02% per annum (Paid Monthly)

Fund Term:  5-6 Years

Tenants:  Diverse tenancy profile of national and local tenants. Tenants include Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Alder Group.

Natgen Investment Trust CO24

Location:  Johnstone Street, Collie, WA

Investment Status:  FULLY SUBSCRIBED

Purchase Date:  February 2024

Purchase Price:  $10M

Return:  8.5% per annum (Paid Monthly)

Fund Term:  5-6 Years

Tenants:  Woolworths supermarket and 8 specialty tenants

Natgen Development Trust activities for 2024
During 2023, we busied ourselves by instituting three Natgen Development Trusts to join our UC22 trust from the year earlier. This has eventuated in having 4 major development projects under construction during 2024, with all of them to be delivered during 2025.

In the latter part of 2024, we added Natgen Development Trust YB24 to the portfolio, with construction and completion of this project (at Yarrabilba) to take place during 2025.

With such an ambitious construction program during 2024, I must acknowledge the titanic efforts of Brett Nelson and Mark Jewell in development managing all of this activity with great efficiency and effectiveness. Further, we have benefited from a group of consultants and builders who have, without exception, added value and expertise to the projects. The result is that each project is proceeding well within it’s budgetary envelope.

Natgen Investment Trust YB24

Location:  Wongawallan Road, Yarrabilba, QLD

Investment Status:  FULLY SUBSCRIBED

Purchase Date:  August 2024

Completed Value:  $10.137M

Return:  25.42% Targeted Development Return

Fund Term:  18 months

Tenants:  Strata Titled

The outlook for 2025

After making a number of very significant expert appointments this year, I am very much looking forward to 2025. The Natgen team is stronger than ever before and our strategic direction and mission is clear.

Our focus on serving the investment needs of ours unitholders is sharp and clear. In order to do this, we manage relationships with a number of important and often interconnected stakeholder groups, including the tenants in Natgen properties, financiers, local authorities, our builders and consultants and many others.

Care and consideration of the Natgen team is also vital in achieving our mission – a fact which is not lost on us.

The Economy in 2025
We end 2024 with the expectation of interest rate moderation during 2024, again dependent on the market and global factors. There are a number of recent economic indicators supporting this view, including data this week indicating a moderation of wages inflation to lower than predicted levels and benign quarterly GDP numbers.The trajectory of interest rates during 2025 remains a matter of conjecture. We monitor the predications of many organisations, including the big Australian banks, the RBA economics consultancies and global commentary. My personal best guess is a combination of the NAB and Westpac positions, but of course these are only forecasts and remain subject to the vicissitudes of the market and geopolitics.

This graph plots the forecasts of the big four Australian banks for interest rate easing from the end of November 2024, through 2025 and 2026

Source: Natgen

Natgen Investment Trust activity in 2025

With this as the background, we expect to continue to acquisitions activity along our established acquisitions themes, being:

  • Regional convenience retailing;
  • Non-CBD office;
  • Value-add industrial; and
  • Specialist assets, including medical.

We expect the first manifestation of our 2025 program to be released in January 2025.

Natgen Development Trust activity in 2025
As mentioned earlier, 2025 will be the year in which 5 Natgen development trust projects will be delivered to unitholders and purchasers.We will also continue to seek future projects for investment through 2025 and into 2026 and 2027. The pipeline is being formulated currently and we look forward to releasing details during the early months of 2025.
A thank-you to You!

If you have made it this far through this rather long and rambling treatise, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your interest and support for Natgen. As I mentioned at our recent Christmas function, the Natgen company is, in essence, a community. Each and every member of that community, be they at the centre or at the periphery, contributes to the whole.

I look forward to further communicating with you during 2025 to update you on our progress and future initiatives.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

Steven Goakes
Managing Director

Natgen provides clients with well-considered, carefully measured commercial investment opportunities, accompanied by professional advice from our experienced leaders.

If you’d like to be notified of future investment opportunities, request an Investor Information Pack or contact us directly at invest@natgen.com.au

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